20.3.18

Curly's daily summary of Savusavu weather forcasts, plus Tropical Cyclone Watch;-

Wednesday 21 March 2018 Curly's Daily Summary of Savusavu Weather Forecasts,TC Watch

The following is Curly's  brief collective summary of Weather after reviewing all or part of the following;-

.Fiji Met Forecasts, Sopac, GFS gribs ,,MetVuw, ZY Gribs; US Navy –Pearl Harbor and  other sources for

the area of Savusavu –Fiji Islands,  do not complain to  the messenger

 ( Curly ) if the forecasts are wrong 

  1] Fiji Marine Weather Bulletin
Issued from the National Weather Forecasting Centre Nadi
at 5:30am on Wednesday the 21st of March 2018
Situation:
An east to southeast wind flow prevails over Fiji waters.
Forecast to midnight tonight for Fiji waters:
East to southeast winds 10 to 15 knots.  
Moderate seas
Further outlook:  East to southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Moderate
seas.
 
 
2] Fiji Met's Public Savusavu Bulletin;
 
Savusavu Today; Fine apart from brief showers..
 
 Savusavu tomorrow ; Brief showers.
 
 
 
3]  Savusavu Area Gribs ( Metvuw/zy Gribs )  for next 4 days,

at noon  each

Wed  21 Mar 2018       10 SSW/WNW fine hvy afternoon evening showers overnight 10 NNW/WNW fine??

Thu 22 Mar 2018         05/10 SSE/NE fine hvy/afternoon/evening showers overnight 05/10 ENE/NE showers

Fri 23 Mar 2018           10 ENE hvy-showers continues into evening

overnight 10 ENE showers

Sat 24 Mar 2018         10/15 ENE hvy-showers then hvy rain into evening, overnight 10/15 NNE/NE showers

 

4] Grib files out 10 days  looking for Lows that

effect Savusavu ;-

Now we all know Gribs over 4 days are alittle suspect

but Gribs do often indicate

possible bad weather , there doesn't appear to be any

weather to worry about out past 4-10 days forward, although

a circular system developes to the SSW of Fiji  it

appears to move SSE the ESE –SE under Fiji, it will  bring rain to

Savusavu , not a problem for us.

 

From 5-10 days;- over day or night, or both  expected  

Sun 25 Mar showers Mon 26 Mar Showers;Tues 27 Mar showers,

Wed 28 Mar Hvy-Showers..Thurs 29 Mar Hvy-showersFri 30 Mar

Showers

 
 
5] Monitoring Lows in Tropical Cyclone breeding areas

TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 -DAY OUTLOOK

Equator to 25S and 160E to 120W

Issue Time:0400 UTC Tuesday 20th March2018

Next Issue:0400 UTC Wednesday21stMarch2018

Issued By: Tropical Cyclone Centre, RSMC,

Nadi.

Existing Tropical Cyclones:

Nil.

A low pressure system lies near Solomon Islands.

It is expected to deepen

Likelihood for tropical cyclone formation in the region in

each of the next three days is Wed 21 Mar-Low,

Thurs 22 Mar –Low, Fri 23 Mar is Moderate.

The potential for formation of a Tropical Cyclone in the region

from another system is VERY LOW

 

/6] Savusavu Tides;

High Tide                  0926   1.9

Low  Tide                1542    0.6

 

7] Fiji Met Weather Chart;-