Tuesday 15 October 2019
Farewell to Savusavu's 2019
Yacht Cruising Season ;-(((
2019/2020 Cyclone Season info
Curly's Daily Summary of Savusavu Weather Forecasts
The following is Curly's brief collective summary of Weather after reviewing all or part of the following;-
.Fiji Met Forecasts, Sopac, GFS gribs ,,MetVuw, ZY Gribs; US Navy –Pearl Harbor and other sources for
the area of Savusavu –Fiji Islands, do not complain to the messenger
( Curly ) if the forecasts are wrong
1] Fiji Met's Marine Bulletin Issued from the National Weather Forecasting Centre Nadi at 5:30am on Tuesday the 15th of October 2019 Situation: A trough of low pressure remains to the west of Fiji and is expected to gradually drift east towards the group and affect parts of the country from later today. Meanwhile, an easterly wind flow prevails over Fiji waters. Forecast to midnight tonight for Fiji waters: Easterly winds 15 to 20 knots. Moderate to rough seas. Moderate southerly swells. Poor visibility in areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms. Further outlook: East to northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Moderate seas. Poor visibility in areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms. 2] Fiji Met's Public Savusavu Bulletin ;- For Savusavu today ;. Cloudy periods with some showers.
Isolated thunderstorms especially in the afternoon and evening. Outlook for Wednesday : Cloudy periods with showers and isolated thunderstorms especially in the afternoon and evening expected
elsewhere 3] Savusavu Area Gribs ( Metvuw/zy Gribs ) for next 4 days
Tues 15 Oct 2019 10 ESE/NE fine afternoon showers
Overight 10/15 NE some showers
Wed 16 Oct 2019 10 SE/NE fine poss afternoon showers
Overnight 10 SE fine
Thu 17 Oct 2019 10 SSE/SE fine afternoon showers
Overnight 10/15 SE showers
Fri 18 Oct 2019 10/15ESE/SE fine with showers
Overnight 15+ ESE showers
4] Grib files out 10 days looking for Lows/bad weather that
will effect Savusavu ;-Now we all know Gribs over 4 days are
alittle suspect but Gribs do often indicate possible bad weather,
from Sat 19 Oct 15+ ESE showers some hvy; Sun 20 10 SE/NE
some hvy showers; Mon 21 Oct 10 SE/NE fine; Tues 22 Oct 10
SE fine; Wed 23 Oct 10 SSE fine ; Thu 24 Oct 15+ SSE fine.
5] Savusavu Tides; High tide was at 0735 1.7
Low tide 1333 0.6
High tide 1949 1.8
6] Fiji Met Weather Map
7] 2019/2020 Cyclone Season Info;
10 October 2019
NIWA and MetService analyses indicate 9 to 12 named tropical cyclones (TC) could occur in the Southwest Pacific basin between November 2019 and April 2020. This expectation for tropical cyclone activity is close to normal for the region, but with elevated activity east of the International Date Line especially during the late season between February and April.
Tropical cyclones have a significant impact across the Southwest Pacific, with the season officially starting in November and lasting until the end of April.
Vanuatu and New Caledonia typically experience the greatest TC activity, with an average of about two or three named cyclones passing close to those islands each year. For this season, the expectation for those two islands is normal, while Wallis & Futuna, Tuvalu, Fiji, Samoa, American Samoa, Niue, Tonga and the Southern Cook Islands may experience two or more cyclones. Four severe cyclones reaching Category 3 or higher might occur anywhere across the region.
On average, at least one ex-tropical cyclone passes within 550km of New Zealand each year. For the coming season, the risk for an ex-tropical cyclone affecting New Zealand is considered near normal. If an ex-tropical cyclone comes close to the country, it is more likely to pass east of the North Island, and landfall of a degrading storm system is possible. Significant rainfall, extreme winds, hazardous marine conditions and coastal damage can occur leading up to and during these events.
At present, sea surface temperature anomalies across the central Pacific are warm (positive), while the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean is cool (negative). Atmospheric circulation patterns over French Polynesia and northern Australia indicate ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) neutral conditions, but are leaning toward El Niño. Oceanic and atmospheric forecasts for ENSO indicate neutral conditions for the TC season are most likely, with lower probabilities that some type of El Niño may develop by mid-summer. It is worth noting that if El Niño develops it may be of the Modoki type (central Pacific-based) during summer.
There is no expectation that there will be any reduction from normal tropical cyclone activity for the coming season. Increased TC activity is expected for several islands east of the International Date Line, including Samoa, American Samoa, Tonga, Niue the southern Cook Islands, and especially near the Austral Islands.
Tropical cyclones are categorised in strength from 1 to 5, with 5 being the most intense. For the coming season, about four storms are anticipated to reach at least Category 3 strength, with mean wind speeds of at least 118 km/h winds.
Past years with conditions similar to present suggest several storms that develop could intensify to at least Category 3 strength. Category 5 strength cyclones, where wind gusts exceed 199 km/h, have occurred in some years with similar conditions leading into the 2019/20 season (known as 'analogue' seasons). Therefore, all communities should remain alert and well-prepared for severe events.
New Zealand should also remain vigilant as the season unfolds. During some analogue seasons used in the preparation of this seasonal outlook, multiple ex-tropical cyclones passed within 550 km of the country. Significant wind, waves and rainfall are possible from ex-tropical cyclone interactions. Their effects can be spread over a large area, particularly if the decaying storm system of tropical origin interacts with separate weather systems embedded in the middle latitudes.
All communities, regardless of changes in TC risk, should remain vigilant and be aware if the regional climate situation (including ENSO) changes. As with most years, TC activity is expected to increase during the second half of the season from February-April. Early season TC activity is expected to be near normal.
NIWA, MetService, MeteoFrance, BoM, NOAA and Pacific Island National Meteorological Services will all continue to track the progression of ENSO and TC activity, with an update to this guidance in January 2020 if needed.
It does not take a direct hit or a severe cyclone to cause significant damage or life-threatening weather. When dangerous weather is forecast, please heed the advice of your local civil defence or disaster management offices.
