Friday 22 November 2019
The Tropical Low forming to NW/WNW of Fiji
Is expected to fade between Vanuatu and
Fiji on the 26/27 Nov then turns south,
however still monitor, not all models agree.
Are you prepared for a Cyclone ?do you have
a Cyclone plan/see below?
2019/2020 Cyclone Season info
Curly's Daily Summary of Savusavu Weather Forecasts
The following is Curly's brief collective summary of Weather after reviewing all or part of the following;-
.Fiji Met Forecasts, Sopac, GFS gribs ,,MetVuw, ZY Gribs; US Navy –Pearl Harbor and other sources for
the area of Savusavu –Fiji Islands, do not complain to the messenger
( Curly ) if the forecasts are wrong
1] Fiji Met's Marine Bulletin;-
Issued from the National Weather Forecasting Centre Nadi at 5:30am on Friday the 22nd of November 2019 Situation: A trough of low pressure lies slow moving just to the north of Fiji. Associated cloud and showers affect the northern parts of the group. Meanwhile, a southeast wind flow prevails over Fiji waters. Forecast to midnight tonight for Fiji waters: Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Moderate to rough seas. Further outlook: Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Moderate to rough seas. 2] Fiji Met's Public Savusavu Bulletin ;- For Savusavu today... Occasional showers and few thunderstorms.
Outlook for Saturday : Cloudy periods with some showers. Cool at night.
3] Savusavu Area Gribs ( Metvuw/zy Gribs ) for next 4 days Fri 22 Nov 2019 10 S/SSE showers hvy afternoon/evening showers
Overnight 10/15 S/SSE fine some showers
Sat 23 Nov 2019. 15+ SSE fine
Overnight 10+SSE fine
Sun 24 Nov 2019 10 S/SSE fine
Overnight 10 SSE fine
Mon 25 Nov 2019 10 SE/SSE fine
Overnight 10 SSE/S fine
4] Grib files out 10 days looking for Lows/bad weather that
will effect Savusavu ;-Now we all know Gribs over 4 days are
alittle suspect but Gribs do often indicate possible bad weather,
from ;, Tue 26 Nov 10 + SE fine; Wed 27 Nov 10 SE some showers
; Thu 28 Nov 10 E/ESE some showers;Fri 29 Nov 10 E Hvy showers
rain; Sat 30 Nov 15 ESE fine;Sun 01 Dec 10/15 ESE some hvy
showers
Note ; The Low forming to NW /WNW of Fiji is anticipated to
Weaken on 27/28 Nov between Vanuatu /Fiji it is anticipated
to turn south and not effect Savusavu however continue to
monitor
5] Savusavu Tides; Low tide 0839 0.6
High tide 1411 1.8
6] 2019/2020 Cyclone Season thoughts on preparation;-
This section will endeavour to generate some thoughts for you
to consider in your preparation for this coming Cyclone season.
One point will be raised each day from today ;-
Point 1;- Watch the weather forecasts more closely especially
to the NW around the Solomon Islands, look for Lows monitor
there paths , their strengths, their speed, some times you only
get 3 days warning!!
Point 2;- Where are you planning to anchor or moor for the
expected Cyclone? If anchoring how many anchors are you
expecting to deploy ? have you checked to ensure your gear
is still servicable . If on a mooring has your mooring been
recently checked for the Cyclone season?
Point 3; General points for your yacht;-
a] Remove Headsail from furler.
b] Tie your mainsail securely to the boom.
c] Remove all awnings.
d] Remove all loose on deck items
e] Ensure your lines to mooring have chafe gear fitted, do not
run lines through Thimble but use a Knot < bowlin>
f] Ensure you have fuel and provisions for 7 days .
g] You need an anchor light lower than normal just above
boom height. More to be added
Point 4;-Your Dinghy/s;-What are you going to do with your
Dinghy? Tie securely on deck? davits are risky! Do not leave
in water behind yacht; Take ashore and tie down –not under
any trees
Point 5-Communications; Ensure your ships VHF is working,
Plus batteries for your handheld, that your cell phone has spare
recharges and that you have the numbers of all your immediate
moored /anchored area fellow Yachts people/crews; numbers of
the Marina's, and Police Station. Ensure you have spare
torch/flashlight batteries and a second torch /flashlight on hand
if possible.
Point 6;- Unmanned Vessels next to you;- Has the vessel next to
you been prepared for a Tropical Cyclone? If you consider the
vessel is not prepared request in writing to the Marina OR if
Anchored OR if on a private mooring request to the vessel owner
to advise you what plans he /she has in regards to preparing for
a tropical cyclone. Should you be not satisfied contact MSAF
their office is near the main wharf entrance, follow up your
discussions with MSAF with an email to MSAF. It is advisable to
action this point NOW as it may take you some time to make
contact or indeed get any action !!!
Point 7 During Cyclone;- Every vessel should have a constant
Watch reporting on VHF 16 Cruisers Net Control-Curly [ or Cell
phone 868 0878] any problems they have or concerns re other
Vessels.it is hoped that the MSAF Channel Markers and their lights
will survive a Tropical Cyclone, due to terrible Visibility during a
cyclone there has always been a need for marker lights to assist
Vessels to monitor their Position; Regular Weather Updates will
be provided by Net Control(Curly); I am looking for any Cruiser
who has Winlink-Sailmail to assist in back-up weather-please
respond to Curly. There is a need to Identify a Rescue boat and
crew who could be on standby( in the past years I (Curly) has
done this but I no longer have the big inflatable-Volunteers??
Point 8 ;- WILL YOU STAY ON BOARD ???? OR GO ASHORE??
DURING THE CYCLONE;-This is a decision only you can make !
Overall the many years I have been in Fiji the only time I went
ashore my yacht was washed onto the beach [moderate damage]
and I firmly believed I could have avoided the grounding if I had
been on board, since then I have always stayed on board and on
7 occassions I believe being on board did make the difference in
avoiding damage to my vessel during the cyclone.
IN CONCLUSION;- It is the small prep tasks that cause you major
problems during a Cyclone.perhaps you should format your own
Tropical Cyclone preparation list ???? START-NOW ;-))) Action
what preparation tasks you can do now , AVOID LAST MINUTE
PANIC AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE APPROACHS…….
7] 2019/2020 Tropical Cyclone general Info;-
10 October 2019
NIWA and MetService analyses indicate 9 to 12 named tropical cyclones (TC) could occur in the Southwest Pacific basin between November 2019 and April 2020. This expectation for tropical cyclone activity is close to normal for the region, but with elevated activity east of the International Date Line especially during the late season between February and April.
Tropical cyclones have a significant impact across the Southwest Pacific, with the season officially starting in November and lasting until the end of April.
Vanuatu and New Caledonia typically experience the greatest TC activity, with an average of about two or three named cyclones passing close to those islands each year. For this season, the expectation for those two islands is normal, while Wallis & Futuna, Tuvalu, Fiji, Samoa, American Samoa, Niue, Tonga and the Southern Cook Islands may experience two or more cyclones. Four severe cyclones reaching Category 3 or higher might occur anywhere across the region.
On average, at least one ex-tropical cyclone passes within 550km of New Zealand each year. For the coming season, the risk for an ex-tropical cyclone affecting New Zealand is considered near normal. If an ex-tropical cyclone comes close to the country, it is more likely to pass east of the North Island, and landfall of a degrading storm system is possible. Significant rainfall, extreme winds, hazardous marine conditions and coastal damage can occur leading up to and during these events.
At present, sea surface temperature anomalies across the central Pacific are warm (positive), while the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean is cool (negative). Atmospheric circulation patterns over French Polynesia and northern Australia indicate ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) neutral conditions, but are leaning toward El Niño. Oceanic and atmospheric forecasts for ENSO indicate neutral conditions for the TC season are most likely, with lower probabilities that some type of El Niño may develop by mid-summer. It is worth noting that if El Niño develops it may be of the Modoki type (central Pacific-based) during summer.
There is no expectation that there will be any reduction from normal tropical cyclone activity for the coming season. Increased TC activity is expected for several islands east of the International Date Line, including Samoa, American Samoa, Tonga, Niue the southern Cook Islands, and especially near the Austral Islands.
Tropical cyclones are categorised in strength from 1 to 5, with 5 being the most intense. For the coming season, about four storms are anticipated to reach at least Category 3 strength, with mean wind speeds of at least 118 km/h winds.
Past years with conditions similar to present suggest several storms that develop could intensify to at least Category 3 strength. Category 5 strength cyclones, where wind gusts exceed 199 km/h, have occurred in some years with similar conditions leading into the 2019/20 season (known as 'analogue' seasons). Therefore, all communities should remain alert and well-prepared for severe events.
New Zealand should also remain vigilant as the season unfolds. During some analogue seasons used in the preparation of this seasonal outlook, multiple ex-tropical cyclones passed within 550 km of the country. Significant wind, waves and rainfall are possible from ex-tropical cyclone interactions. Their effects can be spread over a large area, particularly if the decaying storm system of tropical origin interacts with separate weather systems embedded in the middle latitudes.
All communities, regardless of changes in TC risk, should remain vigilant and be aware if the regional climate situation (including ENSO) changes. As with most years, TC activity is expected to increase during the second half of the season from February-April. Early season TC activity is expected to be near normal.
NIWA, MetService, MeteoFrance, BoM, NOAA and Pacific Island National Meteorological Services will all continue to track the progression of ENSO and TC activity, with an update to this guidance in January 2020 if needed.
It does not take a direct hit or a severe cyclone to cause significant damage or life-threatening weather. When dangerous weather is forecast, please heed the advice of your local civil defence or disaster management offices.
8] Fiji met Chart;-
