16.12.17

Curly's daily summary of Savusavu weather forecasts, plus Tropical Cyclone Watch.

Sunday 17 December 2017 Curly's Daily Summary of Savusavu Weather Forecasts,

Plus Tropical Cyclone Watch.

The following is Curly's  brief collective summary of Weather after reviewing all or part of the following;-

.Fiji Met Forecasts, Sopac, GFS gribs ,,MetVuw, ZY Gribs; US Navy –Pearl Harbor and  other sources for

the area of Savusavu –Fiji Islands,  do not complain to  the messenger ( Curly ) if the forecasts are wrong 

  
 1] Fiji Marine Weather Bulletin
Issued from the National Weather Forecasting Centre Nadi
at 4:13am on Sunday the 17th of December 2017
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR VATU-I-RA AND KADAVU
PASSAGES, SOUTHWEST VITI LEVU WATERS, YASAWA AND MAMANUCA WATERS. 
Situation:
A trough of low pressure lies slow moving just to the north of the
group.  Associated cloud and rain affects the country. Rain expected
to ease from later today. 
Forecast to midnight tonight for Fiji waters:
For Vatu-I-Ra and Kadavu passages, Southwest Viti Levu waters, Yasawa
and Mamanuca waters:
East to southeast winds 20 to 25 knots, gusting to 30 knots through
the passages.  
Rough seas, very rough through the passages.
Poor visibility in areas of heavy rain and thunderstorms.
Further outlook:  Southeast winds 25 to 30 knots and upto 35 knots
through the passages. Rough seas, very rough through the passages.  
For the rest of Fiji Waters:
East to southeast winds 15 to 20 knots.  
Moderate to rough seas.
Poor visibility in areas of heavy rain and thunderstorms. 
Further outlook:   East to southeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Rough
seas.
 
 
 
2] Fiji Met's Public Savusavu Bulletin;
 
Savusavu Today;- Periods of  rain heavy at times and squally thunderstorms.   Rain expected to gradually ease from midday
 
 Savusavu tomorrow;- Some showers.
       
3]  Savusavu Area Gribs ( Metvuw/zy Gribs )  for next 4 days,

at noon  each

Sun 17 Dec 2017          15/20 SE  showers overnight 15 SE fine

Mon 18 Dec 2017         15 ESE/SE Fine overnight 10 SE fine

Tue 19 Dec 2017          10/15 SE fine overnight 15 ESE showers

Wed 20 Dec 2017        10/15 ESE hvy afternoon /evening showers overnight 15/20 showers



4] Grib files out 10 days  looking for Lows that effect Savusavu etc;-

Now we all know Gribs over 4 days are alittle suspect but Gribs do often

It appears  the lows are moving faster than expected SO FINGERS CROSSED

WE MAY HAVE REASONABLE WEATHER  FOR CHRISTMAS DAY Mon 25 Dec

AND BOXING DAY Tues 26 Dec ….

From 5-10 days;- over day or night, or both  expected  ;Thurs 21 Dec showers;

Fri 22 Dec fine ; Sat 23 Dec  hvy showers/rain; Sun 24 Dec showers.

Mon 25 Dec  fine some showersTues 26 Dec fine..

 
 
5] Monitoring Lows in Tropical Cyclone breeding areas;
 

TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 -DAY OUTLOOK

Equator to 25S and 160E to 120W

Issue Time:0400 UTC Saturday 16thDecember 2017

Next Issue:0400 UTC Sunday 17thDecember 2017

Issued By: Tropical Cyclone Centre, RSMC, Nadi

Existing Tropical Cyclones:

Nil.

A low pressure system remains at 14.8S 168.0E

at 0300UTC today. It is expected to move in a east to

northeast direction

The probability of it to form into

a Tropical Cyclone is MODERATE for 17 Dec, is moderate for

18 Dec and is low for 19 Dec.

The probability of another Tropical Cyclone formation in the area is

VERY LOW.

 

 6] Savusavu Tides-

                              
 Low tide           1307  0.7m
 High tide          1818  1.9m                              
 
                             
 
7]Fiji Met Chart;
 

 

15.12.17

Curly's daily Summary of Savusavu weather forecasts, plus Tropical Cyclone Watch.

Saturday 16 December 2017 Curly's Daily Summary of Savusavu Weather Forecasts,

Plus Tropical Cyclone Watch.

The following is Curly's  brief collective summary of Weather after reviewing all or part of the following;-

.Fiji Met Forecasts, Sopac, GFS gribs ,,MetVuw, ZY Gribs; US Navy –Pearl Harbor and  other sources for

the area of Savusavu –Fiji Islands,  do not complain to  the messenger ( Curly ) if the forecasts are wrong 

  
 1] Fiji Marine Weather Bulletin
Issued from the National Weather Forecasting Centre Nadi
at 5:30am on Saturday the 16th of December 2017
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR VATU-I-RA AND KADAVU
PASSAGES, SOUTHWEST VITI LEVU WATERS, YASAWA AND MAMANUCA WATERS. 
Situation:
A trough lies slow moving to the west of Fiji and extends to the
north of the group.  Associated cloud and rain affect the country.
Meanwhile, a low pressure system is expected to pass north of Fiji in
the weekend.
Forecast to midnight tonight for Fiji waters:
For Vatu-I-Ra and Kadavu passages, Southwest Viti Levu waters, Yasawa
and Mamanuca waters:
East to southeast winds 20 to 25 knots, gusting to 30 knots.  
Rough seas, very rough through the passages.
Poor visibility in areas of heavy rain and thunderstorms.
Further outlook:  East to southeast winds 20 to 25 knots and upto 30
knots through the passgaes. Rough seas, very rough through the
passages.  
For the rest of Fiji Waters:
East to southeast winds 15 to 20 knots.  
Moderate to rough seas.
Poor visibility in areas of heavy rain and thunderstorms. 
Further outlook:   East to southeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Rough
seas.
 
 
 
2] Fiji Met's Public Savusavu Bulletin;
 
Savusavu Today;- Occasional rain heavy at times and few thunderstorms
 
 Savusavu tomorrow;- Rain easing 
       
3]  Savusavu Area Gribs ( Metvuw/zy Gribs )  for next 4 days,

at noon  each

Sat 16 Dec 2017           15 ESE hvy showers/rain overnight 15 ESE hvy Showers

Sun 17 Dec 2017          20 SE  showers overnight 15/20 SE fine

Mon 18 Dec 2017         15 SE Fine overnight 10/15 SE fine

Tue 19 Dec 2017          15 SE fine overnight 10/15 ESE fine


4] Grib files out 10 days  looking for Lows that effect Savusavu etc;-

Now we all know Gribs over 4 days are alittle suspect but Gribs do often

give us indications of  adverse weather  past 4 days and out to 10 days.

Regretably it appears we have another circular LOW moving towards us

from the NW on Christmas Eve 24 Dec bringing hvy showers on both

Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, but VERY HEAVY RAIN ON

BOXING DAY!!!!

 From 5-10 days;- over day or night, or both  expected  ;; Wed  20 Dec fine

Thurs 21 Dec fine; Fri 22 Dec fine ; Sat 23 Dec poss hvy showers;

Sun 24 Dec hvy showers. Mon 25 Dec  hvy showers.

 
 
5] Monitoring Lows in Tropical Cyclone breeding areas;
 

TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 -DAY OUTLOOK

Equator to 25S and 160E to 120W

Issue Time:0400 UTC Friday 15thDecember 2017

Next Issue:0400 UTC Saturday 16thDecember 2017

Issued By: Tropical Cyclone Centre, RSMC, Nadi

Existing Tropical Cyclones:

Nil.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the region in each of the next three days,

A low pressure system lies

at 15.0S 171.0E at 0300UTC today. It is expected to become a

tropical disturbance The probability of TD01F to form into

aTropical Cyclone is LOW on 16 Dec, Moderate on 17 Dec

and Moderate on 18 Dec 2017 The probability of another Tropical Cyclone

formation in the area is VERY LOW

 

 6] Savusavu Tides-

                              
 Low tide           1228  0.7m
 High tide          1838  1.9m                              
 
                             
 
7]Fiji Met Chart;
 

 

14.12.17

Curly's daily summary of Savusavu Weather Forcasts, plus Tropical Cyclone Watch.

Friday 15 December 2017 Curly's Daily Summary of Savusavu Weather Forecasts,

Plus Tropical Cyclone Watch.

The following is Curly's  brief collective summary of Weather after reviewing all or part of the following;-

.Fiji Met Forecasts, Sopac, GFS gribs ,,MetVuw, ZY Gribs; US Navy –Pearl Harbor and  other sources for

the area of Savusavu –Fiji Islands,  do not complain to  the messenger ( Curly ) if the forecasts are wrong 

  
 1] Fiji Marine Weather Bulletin
. Issued from the National Weather Forecasting Centre Nadi
at 5:30am on Friday the 15th of December 2017
Situation:
An east to southeast wind flow prevails over Fiji. Meanwhile, a low
pressure system is expected to pass just north of Fiji. The
associated trough of low pressure with cloud and rain is anticipated
to affect parts of the group from later today.
Forecast to midnight tonight for Fiji waters:
East to southeast winds 10 to 15 knots and upto 20 knots through the
passages.  
Moderate seas, rough through passages.
Poor visibility in areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms.
Further outlook:  East to southeast winds 15 to 20 knots and upto 25
knots through the passgaes. Moderate to rough seas. 
 
 
 
2] Fiji Met's Public Savusavu Bulletin;
 
Savusavu Today;-Cloudy with some showers and possible thunderstorms,
Showers becoming frequent later today.
 
 Savusavu tomorrow;- Occasional rain heavy at times and few thunderstorms
       
3]  Savusavu Area Gribs ( Metvuw/zy Gribs )  for next 4 days,

at noon  each

Fri 15 DEC 2017           10/15 ESE hvy- afternoon/evening showers overnight 15 E/ESE hvy-showers

Sat 16 Dec 2017           10 E/ESE hvy showers/rain overnight 15/20 ESE Showers

Sun 17 Dec 2017          20 ESE/SE hvy showers overnight 15 Se fine

Mon 18 Dec 2017         15 SE Fine overnight 15 SE/SSE fine


4] Grib files out 10 days  looking for Lows that effect Savusavu etc;-

Now we all know Gribs over 4 days are alittle suspect but Gribs do often

give us indications of  adverse weather  past 4 days and out to 10 days.

The 2 Lows we have been tracking have changed direction and now are expected to pass

Vanua Levu further to the north on 17/18 Dec , thus it's expected we will not experience the

very heavy rain ,however  we still may get squally conditions, hvy showers….. monitor

 From 5-10 days;- over day or night, or both  expected  ;Tues 19 Dec showers; Wed  20 Dec fine

;Thurs 21 Dec showers; Fri 22 Dec fine ; Sat 23 Dec poss hvy rain; Sun 24 Dec showers.

 
 
5] Monitoring Lows in Tropical Cyclone breeding areas;
 

TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 -DAY OUTLOOK

Equator to 25S and 160E to 120W

Issue Time:0400 UTC Thursday 14 December 2017

Next Issue:0400 UTC Friday 15thDecember 2017

Issued By: Tropical Cyclone Centre, RSMC, Nadi

Existing Tropical Cyclones:

Nil.

The probability of tropical cyclone formation in the area is

VERY LOW, over next 3 days

 

Fiji met has a 1006 low south of the Solomon Islands,and another

 2007 over central Vanuatu….monitor

 

6] Savusavu Tides-
                              
 Low tide           1145  0.7m
 High tide          1758  1.9m                              
 
                             
 
7]Fiji Met Chart;
 

 

13.12.17

Curly's daily summary of Savusavu weather forecasts, plus Tropical Cyclone watch;-

Thursday 14 December 2017 Curly's Daily Summary of Savusavu Weather Forecasts,

Plus Tropical Cyclone Watch.

The following is Curly's  brief collective summary of Weather after reviewing all or part of the following;-

.Fiji Met Forecasts, Sopac, GFS gribs ,,MetVuw, ZY Gribs; US Navy –Pearl Harbor and  other sources for

the area of Savusavu –Fiji Islands,  do not complain to  the messenger ( Curly ) if the forecasts are wrong 

  
 1] Fiji Marine Weather Bulletin
Issued from the National Weather Forecasting Centre Nadi
at 4:29am on Thursday the 14th of December 2017
Situation:
An east to southeast wind flow prevails over Fiji.
Forecast to midnight tonight for Fiji waters:
East to southeast winds 10 to 15 knots and upto 20 knots through the
passages.  
Moderate seas, rough through passages.
Further outlook:  East to southeast winds 15 to 20 knots and upto 25
knots through the passgaes. Moderate to rough seas. 
. 
 
 
2] Fiji Met's Public Savusavu Bulletin;
 
Savusavu Today;-Cloudy periods with brief showers and possible thunderstorms
 
 Savusavu tomorrow;- Occasional showers and  few thunderstorms
       
3]  Savusavu Area Gribs ( Metvuw/zy Gribs )  for next 4 days,

at noon  each

Thu 14 Dec 2017           10 ENE hvy afternoon /evenshowers overnight 10/15 ENE hvy showers

Fri 15 DEC 2017           10 E hvy- showers overnight 10 ESEshowers

Sat 16 Dec 2017           10 E hvy afternoon /evening showers overnight 20 hvy-Showers

Sun 17 Dec 2017          20 ESE hvy showers overnight 25 SE/ESE showers


4] Grib files out 10 days  looking for Lows that effect Savusavu etc;-

Now we all know Gribs over 4 days are alittle suspect but Gribs do often

give us indications of  adverse weather  past 4 days and out to 10 days.

The 2 Lows we have been tracking have changed direction and now are expected to pass Vanua Levu further to the north on 17/18 Dec , thus it's expected we will not experience the very heavy rain ,however  we still may get squally conditions, hvy showers monitor

 From 5-10 days;- over day or night, or both  expected  ;   Mon 18 Dec fine??; Tues 19 Dec fine; Wed  20 Dec fine;Thurs 21 Dec fine; Fri 22 Dec hvy-showers ; Sat 23 Dec hvy -showers

 
 
5] Monitoring Lows in Tropical Cyclone breeding areas;
 

 TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 -DAY OUTLOOK

Equator to 25S and 160E to 120W

Issue Time:0400 UTC Wednesday 13thDecember 2017

Next Issue:0400 UTC Thursday 14thDecember 2017

Issued By: Tropical Cyclone Centre, RSMC, Nadi

Existing Tropical Cyclones:

Nil

The probability of tropical cyclone formation in the area is

VERY LOW, over next 3 days

 

Fiji met has a 1001 Circular low south of the Solomon Islands-monitor

 

6] Savusavu Tides-
                              
 Low tide           1057  0.7m
 High tide          1716  1.9m                              
 
                             
 
7]Fiji Met Chart;
 

 

12.12.17

Curly's daily Summary of Savusavu Weather Forecasts plus Tropical Cyclone Watch....

Wednesday 13 December 2017 Curly's Daily Summary of Savusavu Weather Forecasts,

Plus Tropical Cyclone Watch.

The following is Curly's  brief collective summary of Weather after reviewing all or part of the following;-

.Fiji Met Forecasts, Sopac, GFS gribs ,,MetVuw, ZY Gribs; US Navy –Pearl Harbor and  other sources for

the area of Savusavu –Fiji Islands,  do not complain to  the messenger ( Curly ) if the forecasts are wrong 

  
 1] Fiji Marine Weather Bulletin
Issued from the National Weather Forecasting Centre Nadi
at 5:30am on Wednesday the 13th of December 2017
Situation:
An east to southeast wind flow prevails over Fiji.
Forecast to midnight tonight for Fiji waters:
 East to southeast winds 10 to 15 knots.  
Moderate seas.
Further outlook:  Eas to southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Moderate
seas. 
 
 
2] Fiji Met's Public Savusavu Bulletin;
 
Savusavu Today;-Cloudy periods with brief showers and possible thunderstorms
 
 Savusavu tomorrow;- Cloudy periods with brief showers.
       
3]  Savusavu Area Gribs ( Metvuw/zy Gribs )  for next 4 days,

at noon  each

Wed 13 Dec 2017          10 ENE/ESE hvy afternoon /Evening showers overnight 10 E/ESE hvy showers

Thu 14 Dec 2017           10 ESE/ENE hvy showers overnight 10/15 ENE hvy showers

Fri 15 DEC 2017           10 E/ENE showers overnight 10 WSW hvy showers

Sat 16 Dec 2017           15ESE hvy showers overnight 15/20 Showers


4] Grib files out 10 days  looking for Lows that effect Savusavu etc;-

Now we all know Gribs over 4 days are alittle suspect but Gribs do often

give us indications of  adverse weather  past 4 days and out to 10 days.

The 2 Lows we have been tracking have changed direction and now are expected to pass Vanua Levu further to the north on 17/18 Dec , thus it's expected we will not experience the very heavy rain ,however  we still may get squally conditions, hvy showers 

 From 5-10 days;- over day or night, or both  expected  ;  Sun 17 Dec  hvy-showers Mon 18 Dec squalls-showers; Tues 19 Dec showers; Wed  20 Dec fine;Thurs 21 Dec fine; Fri 22 Dec fine

 
 
5] Monitoring Lows in Tropical Cyclone breeding areas;
 

 TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 -DAY OUTLOOK

Equator to 25S and 160E to 120W

Issue Time:0400 UTC Tuesday 12thDecember 2017

Next Issue:0400 UTC Wednesday 13thDecember 2017

Issued By: Tropical Cyclone Centre, RSMC, Nadi

Existing Tropical Cyclones:

Nil.

The probability of tropical cyclone formation in the area is

VERY LOW over the next 3 days

 

6] Savusavu Tides-
                              
 Low tide           0905  0.6m
 High tide          1630  1.8m                              
 
                             
 
7]Fiji Met Chart;