Curly's Daily summary of Savusavu weather forecasts plus Tropical Cyclone watch.

Thursday 20 April 2017 Curly's Daily Summary of

Savusavu Weather Forecasts, Tropical Cyclone Watch!!

The following is Curly's  brief collective summary of Weather after reviewing all or part of the following;-

.Fiji Met Forecasts, Sopac, GFS gribs ,,MetVuw, ZY Gribs; US Navy –Pearl Harbor and  other sources for

the area of Savusavu –Fiji Islands,  do not complain to  the messenger ( Curly ) if the forecasts are wrong 

 1] Fiji Marine Weather Bulletin

Issued from the National Weather Forecasting Centre Nadi

at 5:30am on Thursday the 20th of April 2017

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR YASAWA AND SOUTHWEST VITI

LEVU WATERS. 

Situation:

A southeast wind flow prevails over Fiji.

Forecast to midnight tonight for Fiji waters:

FOR YASAWA AND SOUTHWEST VITI LEVU WATERS :

Southeast winds 20 to 25 knots.

Rough seas.

Moderate southerly swells.

Further outlook:  East to southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Moderate to

rough seas. Moderate southeast swells.

For the rest of Fiji Waters:

Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Moderate to rough seas.  Moderate

southerly swells

Further outlook:   East to southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Moderate

to rough seas. Moderate southeast swells

.

  2] Fiji Met's Public Savusavu Bulletin;

Savusavu today  Fine apart from isolated brief showers, cool nights

Savusavu tomorrow;  . Fine apart from brief showers cool at night

3]  Savusavu Area Gribs ( Metvuw/zy Gribs )  for next 4 days,

at noon  each day.    

Thurs  20 Apr 2017       10/15 SE fine overnight  15 SE fine

Fri        21 Apr 2017       10/15  E/ESE fine overnight 10 ENE fine

Sat       22 Apr 2017       10 SE/ENE showers  overnight 10 ENE/NE fine

Sun      23 Apr 2017       10 SE fine overnight 10 SE ESE fine      

 

 4]  Tropical Cyclone-3 day Outlook,EQUATOR-25s, 160E-120W;-

TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 - DAY OUTLOOK

Equator to 25S and 160E to 120W

Issue Time:0400 UTC Wednesday 19hApril  2017

Next Issue: 0400 UTC  Thursday 20thApril 2017

Issued By: Tropical Cyclone Centre, RSMC, Nadi

Existing Tropical Cyclones: nil

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the region in the

next three days,

Tropical depression TD19F  [1008 PA]  was analyzed

near 19.6S 171.8Wat 3pm on Wednesday. The

potential for this system to develop into a tropical

cyclone is LOW for tomorrow and it is expected

to weaken and move out of our region on the next

day.

 

 

 TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 

160E to 120W

ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Apr 190906 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD19F [1007HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 

20.5S 171.2W AT 190600UTC. TD19F SLOW MOVING. POSITION 

POOR BASED ON GOES-15 IR/EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL 

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.

LLCC EXPOSED WITH WEAK CONVECTION AND POOR ORGANISATION. 

SYSTEM LIES SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A MODERATE TO HIGH 

SHEARED ENVIRONMENTWITH VERY LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT AND WEAK 

CYCLONIC CIRCULATION FORDEEPINING. SST AROUND 28 DEGREES 

CELSIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS MOVE THE SYSTEM WESTWARDS WITH NO FURTHER

INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL

CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO VERY LOW.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR 

FORECAST IN THE AREA.

 Grib files out 10 days re TC or Tropical Lows;-

 Whilst the accuracy of Grib files over 3-4 days is questionable

Tropical systems normally do present some indicators.TD19F

 Iis unlikely  to present a problem for Savusavu  at this point.

 There is no other activity which effects Savusavu.

5] Heavy Rain Warning;

There are no current warnings 

 6] Savusavu Tides-

High Tide                         1337     1.6m

Low Tide                          2000     0.7m

 

7]Fiji Met Chart