Wednesday 22 March 2017 Curly's Daily Summary of Savusavu Weather Forecasts, Tropical Cyclone Watch!!! The following is Curly's brief collective summary of Weather after reviewing all or part of the following;-. Fiji Met Forecasts, Sopac, GFS gribs ,,MetVuw, ZY Gribs; US Navy – area of Savusavu – Wed 22 Mar 2017 Light and variable showers overnight 10 NE/SSE fine Thurs 23 Mar 2017 10 SE/SSE fine overnight 10 ESE fine Fri 24 Mar 2017 10/15 SE fine overnight 10 ESE fine Sat 25 Mar 2017 TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 - DAY OUTLOOK Equator to 25S and 160E to 120W Issue Time 0400 UTC Tuesday 21stMarch2017. Next Issue:0400 UTC Wednesday 22ndMarch2017 Issued By: Tropical Cyclone Centre, RSMC, Nadi Existing Tropical Cyclones: Nil. Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the region over next three days, Tropical Disturbance 18F was located at about 9.0S 175.0W or to the east of TD18F moving southeast at 12 knots. It is expected to move southeastwards and gradually weaken.It is expected to move out of Nadi's Area of responsibility by tonight . The potential for tropical cyclone formation in the area for the next three days, is VERY LOW Whilst the accuracy of Grib files over 3-4 days is questionable Tropical systems end of March we have circular activity near Samoa-monitor but today TD 18F. and move out of Nadi's area tonight 7]
1]
at 5:30am on Wednesday the 22nd of March 2017 A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL Situation: A trough of low pressure lies slow moving over and rain affects the group.It is expected to gradually weaken from later today. Forecast to midnight tonight for Northeast to southeast winds 20 to 30 knots with gusts to 40 knots. Rough to very rough seas. Moderate southeasterly swells. Poor visibility in areas of heavy rain and thunderstorms. Further outlook: Northeast to southeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Rough seas. Moderate southerly swells. .
Savusavu today;- Periods of rain heavy at times and squally thunderstorms
Savusavu tomorrow; Occasional Showers and few thunderstorms.
3] Savusavu Area Gribs ( Metvuw/zy Gribs ) for next 4 days,
at noon each day.
Tropical Disturbance SummaryTropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S,
160E to 120WISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 210906 UTC.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 18F CENTRE [1008HPA] ANALYSED NEAR
20.2S 176.7WAT 210600UTC. TD18F SLOW MOVING. POSITION
POOR BASED ON HIMAWARIIR/EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
CONVECTION FLUCTUATING WITH POOR ORGANISATION. SYSTEM LIES
SOUTH OFAN UPPER RIDGE IN A HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 700HPA. SST IS AROUND 28 DEGREES
CELCIUS.
GLOBAL MODEL HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT
SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH NO FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS VERY LOW.
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NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR
FORECAST IN THE AREA.
WXFJ01 NFFN 211900 UTC
SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN NUMBER THIRTY SEVEN ON HEAVY RAIN ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI AT 7.00AM ON WEDNESDAY 22ND MARCH 2017.
HEAVY RAIN WARNING
A HEAVY RAIN WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR VANUA LEVU, TAVEUNI AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS, LAU AND LOMAIVITI GROUP AND IS
NOW IN FORCE FOR YASAWA GROUP, NORTHERN AND
A HEAVY RAIN ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE FOR MAMANUCA GROUP AND
SITUATION:
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WITH CLOUD AND RAIN REMAINS SLOW MOVING OVER
FOR VANUA LEVU, TAVEUNI AND NEARBY SMALLER
AND LOMAIVITI GROUP:PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES
AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN EASING FROM LATER TODAY.
FOR YASAWA GROUP, NORTHERN AND
OCCASIONAL RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN
BECOMING FREQUENT AND HEAVY WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS
FROM LATER TODAY.
FOR MAMANUCA GROUP AND
CLOUDY PERIODS WITH SOME SHOWERS. SHOWERS POSSIBLY
INCREASING TO RAIN AND BECOMING FREQUENT AND HEAVY
WITH FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATER TODAY.
LOCALISED HEAVY RAIN, MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING OF
LOW LYING AREAS.
THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN ON HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE ISSUED AT 10.00AM TODAY OR EARLIER.
Low Tide 0800 0.9 m
High Tide 1421 1.6 m
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21.3.17
Curly's daily summary of Savusavu weather forecasts, plus Tropical Cyclone Watch;-
