Thursday 22 March 2018 Curly's Daily Summary of Savusavu Weather Forecasts,TC Watch
The following is Curly's brief collective summary of Weather after reviewing all or part of the following;-
.Fiji Met Forecasts, Sopac, GFS gribs ,,MetVuw, ZY Gribs; US Navy –Pearl Harbor and other sources for
the area of Savusavu –Fiji Islands, do not complain to the messenger
( Curly ) if the forecasts are wrong
1] Fiji Marine Weather Bulletin Issued from the National Weather Forecasting Centre Nadi at 5:30am on Thursday the 22nd of March 2018 Situation: A moist east to northeast wind flow prevails over Fiji waters. Meanwhile, a trough of low pressure to the far northwest of Fiji is expected to gradually move over the group on Friday. Forecast to midnight tonight for Fiji waters: East to northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Moderate seas Further outlook: Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Moderate to rough seas. 2] Fiji Met's Public Savusavu Bulletin; Savusavu Today; Brief showers.with possible afternoon or eveningthunderstorms.
Savusavu tomorrow ; Occasional showers.and few thunderstorms. Isolated heavy falls expected.
3] Savusavu Area Gribs ( Metvuw/zy Gribs ) for next 4 days, at noon each
Thu 22 Mar 2018 05/10 S/NNE showers hvy/afternoon/evening showers overnight 10 NE/NNE
some hvy- showers
Fri 23 Mar 2018 10 ENE/NE some-showers overnight 10 ENE/NE possible hvy-showers
Sat 24 Mar 2018 10 ENE/NE showers ,hvy afternoon/evening showers overnight 10/15 NNE/NE
hvy-showers
Sun 25 Mar 2018 10/15NE hvy-showers poss hvy afternoon/evening showers overnight
10/15 NE hvy showers
4] Grib files out 10 days looking for Lows that
effect Savusavu ;-
Now we all know Gribs over 4 days are alittle suspect
but Gribs do often indicate
possible bad weather , there doesn't appear to be any
weather to worry about out past 4-10 days forward, although
the SPZC 22 -29 Mar ,appears to become active
Solomons/Vanuatu/Fiji/Tonga it will bring rain and some squally conditions
to Savusavu as it passes hopefully to the south of Fiji. TD11F is within the SPCZ.MONITOR TD11F.,
From 5-10 days;- over day or night, or both expected
Mon 26 Mar Showers;Tues 27 Mar fine ; Wed 28 Mar Very hvy-rain.
Thurs 29 Mar showers;Fri 30 Mar Hvy-Showers; Sat 31 Mar 2018
Showers some hvy.
5] Monitoring Lows in Tropical Cyclone breeding areas TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 -DAY OUTLOOK
Equator to 25S and 160E to 120W
Issue Time:0400 UTC Wednesday 21stMarch2018
Next Issue:0400 UTC Thursday22ndMarch2018
Issued By: Tropical Cyclone Centre, RSMC,
Nadi.
Existing Tropical Cyclones:
Nil
.
Tropical Disturbance 11F centre[1002hpa] was analysed
near 10.2S and 162.3E at midday today. TD11F
is slow moving. The potential for TD11F to develop into
tropical cyclone in the next three days is LOW for tomorrow
and MODERATEfor the following two days.
Likelihood for anpther tropical cyclone formation
in the region in each of the next three days is Very Low.
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 210855 UTC. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD11F CENTRE {[1001HPA]} WAS ANALYSED NEAR 9.6S AND 161.8E AT 210600UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 IR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT ABOUT THE NORTH AND EAST OF SUPPOSED LLCC. ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR. CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS EXTENDS UP TO 500HPA. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND GRADUALLY MOVE IT SOUTHWARDS WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS MODERATE. ***************************************************** *************** NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE AREA.
/6] Savusavu Tides;
High Tide 1013 1.9
Low Tide 1634 0.6
7] Fiji Met Weather Chart;-
