Friday 23 March 2018 Curly's Daily Summary of Savusavu Weather Forecasts,TC Watch
The following is Curly's brief collective summary of Weather after reviewing all or part of the following;-
.Fiji Met Forecasts, Sopac, GFS gribs ,,MetVuw, ZY Gribs; US Navy –Pearl Harbor and other sources for
the area of Savusavu –Fiji Islands, do not complain to the messenger
( Curly ) if the forecasts are wrong
1] Fiji Marine Weather Bulletin Issued from the National Weather Forecasting Centre Nadi at 5:30am on Friday the 23rd of March 2018 Situation: A moist east to northeast wind flow prevails over Fiji. Meanwhile, a trough of low pressure to the far southwest of Fiji is expected to gradually move over the group on Sunday. Forecast to midnight tonight for Fiji waters: East to northeast winds 10 to 20 knots. Moderate to rough seas. Moderate southeasterly swells. Further outlook: Northeasterly winds 15 to 20 knots. Moderate to rough seas. Moderate southeasterly swells. 2] Fiji Met's Public Savusavu Bulletin; Savusavu Today; Occasional showers.and isolated thunderstorms. Isolated heavy falls expected.
Savusavu tomorrow ; Sorry but not available from Fiji Met.
3] Savusavu Area Gribs ( Metvuw/zy Gribs ) for next 4 days, at noon each
Fri 23 Mar 2018 10 ENE/ESE hvy-showers continuing into evening overnight 10 NE possible hvy-showers
Sat 24 Mar 2018 10 NNE/NNW fine with ,hvy afternoon/evening showers overnight 10 NNE/NE hvy-showers.
Sun 25 Mar 2018 10 NNE showers overnight 10 NE fine
Mon 26 Mar 2018 10 NE showers overnight 10 NNW/NNE some showers
4] Grib files out 10 days looking for Lows that
effect Savusavu ;-
Now we all know Gribs over 4 days are alittle suspect
but Gribs do often indicate
possible bad weather , there doesn't appear to be any
weather to worry about out past 4-10 days forward, although
the SPZC 22 -29 Mar ,appears to become active
Solomons/Vanuatu/Fiji/Tonga it will bring rain and some squally conditions
to Savusavu as it passes hopefully to the south of Fiji. TD11F is within the SPCZ.MONITOR TD11F.,
From 5-10 days;- over day or night, or both expected
27 Mar showers ; Wed 28 Mar hvy-showers
Thurs 29 Mar showers;Fri 30 Mar Hvy-Showers; Sat 31 Mar 2018
Fine; SUN 01 Apr showers.
5] Monitoring Lows in Tropical Cyclone breeding areas TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 -DAY OUTLOOK
Equator to 25S and 160E to 120W
Issue Time:0400 UTC Thursday22ndMarch2018
Next Issue:0400 UTC Friday23rdMarch2018
Issued By: Tropical Cyclone Centre, RSMC,
Nadi.
Existing Tropical Cyclones:
Nil
.
Tropical Depression11F centre[1000 hpa] was analysed
near 11.8S and 165.3E at 3pm today. TD11F is slow moving.
The potential for TD11F to develop into a tropical cyclone
in the next three days is MODERATE, MODERATE-HIGH
and MODERATE
Likelihood for another tropical cyclone formation in the
region in each of the next three days is Very Low.
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 220910 UTC. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD11F CENTRE {[999HPA]} WAS ANALYSED NEAR 11.2S AND 164.5E AT 220600UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 IR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT ABOUT THE NORTH AND EAST OF SUPPOSED LLCC. ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR. CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS EXTENDS UP TO 500HPA. SYSTEM LIES JUST SOUTHEAST OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND GRADUALLY MOVE IT SOUTHWARDS WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS MODERATE. ********************************************************* NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE AREA.
6] Savusavu Tides;
High Tide 1108 1.9
Low Tide 1731 0.6
7] Fiji Met Weather Chart;-
