Saturday 24 March 2018 Curly's Daily Summary of Savusavu Weather Forecasts,TC Watch
The following is Curly's brief collective summary of Weather after reviewing all or part of the following;-
.Fiji Met Forecasts, Sopac, GFS gribs ,,MetVuw, ZY Gribs; US Navy –Pearl Harbor and other sources for
the area of Savusavu –Fiji Islands, do not complain to the messenger
( Curly ) if the forecasts are wrong
1] Fiji Marine Weather Bulletin Issued from the National Weather Forecasting Centre Nadi at 5:50am on Saturday the 24th of March 2018 Situation: A trough of low pressure to the southwest of Fiji is expected to gradually move over the group on Sunday. Associated cloud and showers affect the country.
Forecast to midnight tonight for Fiji waters: East to northeast winds 10 to 20 knots. Moderate to rough seas. Moderate southeasterly swells. Poor visibility in areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms. Further outlook: Northeasterly winds 15 to 20 knots. Moderate to rough seas. Moderate southeasterly swells. 2] Fiji Met's Public Savusavu Bulletin; Savusavu Today; Occasional showers. Isolated thunderstorms. And heavy falls expected.
Savusavu tomorrow ; Occasional showers. Isolated thunderstorms. And heavy falls expected
3] Savusavu Area Gribs ( Metvuw/zy Gribs ) for next 4 days, at noon each
Sat 24 Mar 2018 05/10 NNE/SW possible hvy showers, hvy afternoon/evening showers, overnight 05/10 NNE/NE hvy-showers.
Sun 25 Mar 2018 10 ENE/ESE possible hvy , hvy afternoon /evening showers overnight 10 N/NE Hvy showers/rain
Mon 26 Mar 2018 10 ESE/ENE fine overnight 05 SW/E some showers
Tue 27 Mar 2018 10 SSE/SSSW some showers overnight t05/10 SSEshowers
4] Grib files out 10 days looking for Lows that
effect Savusavu ;-
Now we all know Gribs over 4 days are alittle suspect
but Gribs do often indicate
possible bad weather , there doesn't appear to be any
weather to worry about out past 4-10 days forward, although
the SPZC 24 -29 Mar appears to become active
Solomons/Vanuatu/Fiji/Tonga it will bring rain and some squally conditions
to Savusavu as it passes hopefully to the south of Fiji. TD11F is within the SPCZ.MONITOR TD11F.,
From 5-10 days;- over day or night, or both expected
; Wed 28 Mar showersThurs 29 Mar showers;Fri 30 Mar Fine withShowers; Sat 31 Mar hvy showers ; Sun 01 Apr hvy-showers;Mon 02 Apr showers.
5] Monitoring Lows in Tropical Cyclone breeding areas TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 -DAY OUTLOOK
Equator to 25S and 160E to 120W
Issue Time:0400 UTC Friday23rdMarch2018
Next Issue:0400 UTC Saturday24thMarch2018
Issued By: Tropical Cyclone Centre, RSMC,
Nadi.
Existing Tropical Cyclones:
Nil.
Tropical Depression11F centre[999hpa] was analysed near13.4Sand 164.4E at3pmtoday. TD11F is slow moving.
The potential for TD11F to develop into a tropical cyclone
in the next three day isHIGH for the next two days and
MODERATE for third day.
Likelihood for another tropical cyclone formationin the
region in each of the next three days is Very Low.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A1 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 231346 UTC. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11F CENTRE 999HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5S 162.4E AT 231200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR EIR HIMAWARI-8 IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. TD11F MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 25 KNOTS. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT AROUND THE LLCC. ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED SLIGHTLY IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS EXTENDS UP TO 300HPA. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN JUST SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.3 WRAP YIELDS DT=2.0. MET AND PT AGREE. THUS, YIELDING T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHWEST WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS IS HIGH. FORECASTS : AT 12 HRS VALID AT 240000 UTC 14.8S 161.4E MOV SW AT 08KT WITH 30 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 24 HRS VALID AT 241200 UTC 16.1S 160.8E MOV SSW AT 08KT WITH 35 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE OUTLOOK : AT 36 HRS VALID AT 250000 UTC 17.1S 160.3E MOV SSW AT 06KT WITH 40 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 48 HRS VALID AT 251200 UTC 18.2S 160.3E MOV S AT 05 T WITH 40 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 232000 UTC.
6] Savusavu Tides;
High Tide 1205 1.8
Low Tide 1833 0.6
7] Fiji Met Weather Chart;-
